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Home > Publications > Conflict Trends

As Durban, South Africa, prepared for the 17th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in November this year, the world is recovering from a series of climate and environmental-related disasters, which have occurred over the past few years. The Indian Ocean tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, the Haiti earthquake, the New Zealand earthquake, the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis, among others, have killed and affected millions. At the same time, silent and slower disasters related to the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate and environmental changes are affecting billions – especially poor people who depend on the environment for their livelihood.

Sudden disasters and slow -onset environmental changes have the potential to trigger conflicts, especially in situations where people are already vulnerable and where the socio-economic, political and cultural context exacerbates existing tensions. Water security is a related -and perhaps one of the most serious – strategic issues of our time. Approximately 18 Middle Eastern and North African countries – some already prone to instability and conflict – are at extreme risk of water insecurity. Notwithstanding the potential for conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, some argue that water scarcity and the resultant high food prices are key factors in the Maghreb and Middle East uprisings.

 

In Asia, glacial retreat in Kashmir is affecting India-Pakistan relations, while in Africa it is uncertain whether the Nile Basin Initiative will weather climate change challenges and other regional political tensions. The Third Pole – or the HinduKush Himalaya region in Asia -is home to 10 major river systems that provide water to more than 20% of the world’s population – Bangladeshis, Pakistanis, Afghans, Indians, Chinese, Nepalese and others depend on it. The area is already susceptible to natural disasters and high levels of warming , earthquakes, glacial melting and sea-level rise.
In Africa, in addition to serious water insecurity predicted for sub-Saharan Africa resulting from droughts, desertification and other climatic events, the Nile is the

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